The unified proposal for classification of human respiratory syncytial virus below the subgroup level (preprint)

A globally implemented unified classification for human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) below the subgroup level remains elusive. Here, we formulate the global consensus of HRSV classification based on the challenges and limitations of our previous proposals and the future of genomic surveillance. From a high-quality dataset of 1,480 HRSV-A and 1,385 HRSV-B genomes submitted to NCBI and GISAID up to March 2023, we categorized HRSV-A/B sequences into lineages based on phylogenetic clades and amino acid markers. We defined 24 lineages within HRSV-A and 16 within HRSV-B, providing guidelines for prospective lineages definition. Our classification demonstrated robustness in its applicability to both complete and partial genomes. In addition, it allowed the observation of notable lineage replacements and the identification of lineages exclusively detected since the COVID-19 pandemic. We envision that this unified HRSV classification proposal will strengthen and facilitate HRSV molecular epidemiology on a global scale.

COVID-19 vaccine uptake and effectiveness by time since vaccination in the Western Cape province, South Africa: An observational cohort study during 2020-2022 (preprint)

Background: There are few data on the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and boosting in Africa, which experienced high levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a mostly vaccine-naive population, and has limited vaccine coverage and competing health service priorities. We assessed the association between vaccination and severe COVID-19 in the Western Cape, South Africa. Methods We performed an observational cohort study of >2 million adults during 2020-2022. We described SARS-CoV-2 testing, COVID-19 outcomes, and vaccine uptake over time. We used multivariable cox models to estimate the association of BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccination with COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death, adjusting for demographic characteristics, underlying health conditions, socioeconomic status proxies and healthcare utilisation. Results By end 2022, only 41% of surviving adults had completed vaccination and 8% a booster dose, despite several waves of severe COVID-19. Recent vaccination was associated with notable reductions in severe COVID-19 during distinct analysis periods dominated by Delta, Omicron BA.1/2 and BA.4/5 (sub)lineages: within 6 months of completing vaccination or boosting, vaccine effectiveness was 46-92% for death (range across periods), 45-92% for admission with severe disease or death, and 25-90% for any admission or death. During the Omicron BA.4/5 wave, within 3 months of vaccination or boosting, BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S were each 84% effective against death (95% CIs: 57-94 and 49-95, respectively). However, there were distinct reductions of VE at larger times post completing or boosting vaccination. Conclusions Continued emphasis on regular COVID-19 vaccination including boosting is important for those at high risk of severe COVID-19 even in settings with widespread infection-induced immunity.

Rapid Emergence and Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Advanced HIV Infection (preprint)

Previous studies have linked the evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) genetic variants to persistent infections in people with immunocompromising conditions1-4, but the evolutionary processes underlying these observations are incompletely understood. Here we used high-throughput, single-genome amplification and sequencing (HT-SGS) to obtain up to [~]103 SARS-CoV-2 spike gene sequences in each of 184 respiratory samples from 22 people with HIV (PWH) and 25 people without HIV (PWOH). Twelve of 22 PWH had advanced HIV infection, defined by peripheral blood CD4 T cell counts (i.e., CD4 counts) <200 cells/L. In PWOH and PWH with CD4 counts [≥]200 cells/L, most single-genome spike sequences in each person matched one haplotype that predominated throughout the infection. By contrast, people with advanced HIV showed elevated intra-host spike diversity with a median of 46 haplotypes per person (IQR 14-114). Higher intra-host spike diversity immediately after COVID-19 symptom onset predicted longer SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding among PWH, and intra-host spike diversity at this timepoint was significantly higher in people with advanced HIV than in PWOH. Composition of spike sequence populations in people with advanced HIV fluctuated rapidly over time, with founder sequences often replaced by groups of new haplotypes. These population-level changes were associated with a high total burden of intra-host mutations and positive selection at functionally important residues. In several cases, delayed emergence of detectable serum binding to spike was associated with positive selection for presumptive antibody-escape mutations. Taken together, our findings show remarkable intra-host genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in advanced HIV infection and suggest that adaptive intra-host SARS-CoV-2 evolution in this setting may contribute to the emergence of new variants of concern (VOCs).

SARS-CoV-2 sequencing with cloud-based analysis illustrates expedient co-ordinated surveillance of viral genomic epidemiology across six continents (preprint)

Viral sequencing has been critical in the COVID-19 pandemic response, but sequencing and bioinformatics capacity remain inconsistent. To examine the utility of a cloud-based sequencing analysis platform for SARS-CoV-2 sequencing, we conducted a cross-sectional study incorporating seven countries in July 2022. Sites submitted sequential SARS-CoV-2 sequences over two weeks to the Global Pathogen Analysis Service (GPAS). The GPAS bioinformatics cloud platform performs sequence assembly plus lineage and related sample identification. Users can share information with collaborators while retaining data ownership. Seven sites contributed sequencing reads from 5,346 clinical samples, of which 4,799/5,346 (89.8%) had a lineage identified. Omicron lineages dominated, with the vast majority being BA.5, BA.4 and BA.2, commensurate with contemporary genomic epidemiological observations. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated low within-lineage diversity, and highly similar sequences present in globally disparate sites. A cloud-based analysis platform like GPAS addresses bioinformatics bottlenecks and facilitates collaboration in pathogen surveillance, enhancing epidemic and pandemic preparedness.

An extended catalytic model to assess changes in risk for multiple reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has illustrated that monitoring trends in multiple infections can provide insight into the biological characteristics of new variants. Following several pandemic waves, many people have already been infected and reinfected by SARS-CoV-2 and therefore methods are needed to understand the risk of multiple reinfections. Objectives: In this paper, we extended an existing catalytic model designed to detect increases in the risk of reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 to detect increases in the population-level risk of multiple reinfections. Methods: The catalytic model assumes the risk of reinfection is proportional to observed infections and uses a Bayesian approach to fit model parameters to the number of nth infections among individuals whose nth infection was observed at least 90 days before. Using a posterior draw from the fitted model parameters, a 95% projection interval of daily nth infections is calculated under the assumption of a constant nth infection hazard coefficient. An additional model parameter was introduced to consider the increased risk of reinfection detected during the Omicron wave. Validation was performed to assess the model's ability to detect increases in the risk of third infections. Key Findings: The model parameters converged when applying the model's fitting and projection procedure to the number of observed third SARS-COV-2 infections in South Africa. No additional increase in the risk of third infection was detected after the increase detected during the Omicron wave. The validation of the third infections method showed that the model can successfully detect increases in the risk of third infections under different scenarios. Limitations: Even though the extended model is intended to detect the risk of nth infections, the method was only validated for detecting increases in the risk of third infections and not for four or more infections. The method is very sensitive to low numbers of nth infections, so it might not be usable in settings with small epidemics, low coverage of testing or early in an outbreak. Conclusions: The catalytic model to detect increases in the risk of reinfections was successfully extended to detect increases in the risk of nth infections and could contribute to future detection of increases in the risk of nth infections by SARS-CoV-2 or other similar pathogens.

Evolution and neutralization escape of the SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 subvariant (preprint)

Omicron BA.2.86 subvariant differs from Omicron BA.2 as well as recently circulating variants by over 30 mutations in the spike protein alone. Here we report on the first isolation of the live BA.2.86 subvariant from a diagnostic swab collected in South Africa which we tested for escape from neutralizing antibodies and viral replication properties in cell culture. BA.2.86 did not have significantly more escape than Omicron XBB.1.5 from neutralizing immunity elicited by infection of Omicron subvariants ranging from BA.1 to XBB, either by infection alone or as breakthrough infection in vaccinated individuals. Neutralization escape was present relative to earlier strains: BA.2.86 showed extensive escape both relative to ancestral virus in sera from pre-Omicron vaccinated individuals and relative to Omicron BA.1 in sera from Omicron BA.1 infected individuals. We did not observe substantial differences in viral properties in cell culture relative to XBB.1.5. Both BA.2.86 and XBB.1.5 produced infection foci of similar size, had similar cytopathic effect (both lower than ancestral SARS-CoV-2), and had similar replication dynamics. We also investigated the relationship of BA.2.86 to BA.2 sequences and found that the closest were BA.2 samples from Southern Africa circulating in early 2022. These observations suggest that BA.2.86 is more closely related to sequences from Southern Africa than other regions and so may have evolved there, and that evolution led to escape from neutralizing antibodies similar in scale to recently circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2.

Emergence of neutralizing antibodies associates with clearance of SARS-CoV-2 during HIV-mediated immunosuppression (preprint)

To design effective vaccines and other immune interventions against a pathogen, it is necessary to know which aspect of immunity associates with protection. We investigated whether neutralizing antibodies associate with infection clearance in long-term SARS-CoV-2 infection during HIV-mediated immunosuppression. We monitored neutralizing antibody activity against SARS-CoV-2 in five participants with advanced HIV disease and delayed control of HIV viremia. These participants had persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection ranging from 110 to 289 days which was associated with low or undetectable neutralizing antibody responses. SARS-CoV-2 clearance was associated with the emergence of neutralizing antibodies and occurred in two participants before suppression of HIV viremia, but after some CD4 T cell reconstitution. Vaccination only further increased neutralizing antibody levels in the advanced HIV disease participants who achieved HIV suppression pre-vaccination. During the prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection we observed widespread evolution which was particularly pronounced in one Delta variant infection. This resulted in high-level escape from Delta-elicited neutralizing antibodies and a virus antigenically distinct from both ancestral SARS-CoV-2 and Omicron XBB in hamster experimental infections. The results offer new evidence that neutralizing antibodies associate with SARS-CoV-2 protection and argue that successful management of HIV may be necessary to curtail long-term infection and evolution of co-infecting pathogens.

Association of close-range contact patterns with SARS-CoV-2: a household transmission study (preprint)

Background Households are an important location for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, especially during periods where travel and work was restricted to essential services. We aimed to assess the association of close-range contact patterns with SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods We deployed proximity sensors for two weeks to measure face-to-face interactions between household members after SARS-CoV-2 was identified in the household, in South Africa, 2020 - 2021. We calculated duration, frequency and average duration of close range proximity events with SARS-CoV-2 index cases. We assessed the association of contact parameters with SARS-CoV-2 transmission using mixed effects logistic regression accounting for index and household member characteristics. Results We included 340 individuals (88 SARS-CoV-2 index cases and 252 household members). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 acquisition were index cases with minimum Ct value <30 (aOR 10.2 95%CI 1.4-77.4) vs >35, contacts aged 13-17 years (aOR 7.7 95%CI 1.0-58.2) vs <5 years and female contacts (aOR 2.3 95%CI 1.1-4.8). No contact parameters were associated with acquisition (aOR 1.0 95%CI 1.0-1.0) for all three of duration, frequency and average duration. Conclusion We did not find an association between close-range proximity events and SARS-CoV-2 household transmission. It may be that droplet-mediated transmission during close-proximity contacts play a smaller role than airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the household, due to high contact rates in households or study limitations. Funding Wellcome Trust (Grant number 221003/Z/20/Z) in collaboration with the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, United Kingdom.

Molecular identification of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern at urban wastewater treatment plants across South Africa (preprint)

The use of wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is a useful complementary tool to clinical surveillance. The aims of this study were to characterize SARS-CoV-2 from wastewater samples, and to identify variants of concern present in samples collected from wastewater treatment plants in South African urban metros from April 2021 to January 2022. A total of 325 samples were collected from 15 wastewater treatment plants. Nucleic acids were extracted from concentrated samples, and subjected to amplicon-based whole genome sequencing. To identify variants of concerns and lineages, we used the Freyja tool (https://github.com/andersen-lab/Freyja), which assigns each sample with the prevalence of each variant present. We also used signature mutation analysis to identify variants in each wastewater treatment site. A heatmap was generated to identify patterns of emerging mutations in the spike gene using Excel conditional formatting. Using the Freyja tool, the Beta variant was detected and became predominate from April to June 2021 followed by the Delta variant and lastly the Omicron variant. Our heatmap approach was able to identify a pattern during the changes of predominate variant in wastewater with the emergence of mutations and the loss of others. In conclusion, sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from wastewater largely corresponded with sequencing from clinical specimens. Our heatmap has the potential to detect new variants prior to emergence in clinical samples and this may be particularly useful during times of low disease incidence between waves, when few numbers of positive clinical samples are collected and submitted for testing. A limitation of wastewater sequencing is that it is not possible to identify new variants, as variants are classified based on known mutations in clinical strains.

TRENDS IN CASES, HOSPITALISATION AND MORTALITY RELATED TO THE OMICRON BA.4/BA.5 SUB-VARIANTS IN SOUTH AFRICA (preprint)

Introduction: The Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave in South Africa had lower hospitalisation and mortality than previous SARS-CoV-2 variants and was followed by an Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave. This study compared admission incidence risk across waves, and the risk of mortality in the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave, to the Omicron BA.1/BA.2 and Delta waves. Methods: Data from South Africa's national hospital surveillance system, SARS-CoV-2 case linelist and Electronic Vaccine Data System were linked and analysed. Wave periods were defined when the country passed a weekly incidence of 30 cases/100,000 people. Mortality rates in the Delta, Omicron BA.1/BA.2 and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave periods were compared by post-imputation random effect multivariable logistic regression models. Results: In-hospital deaths declined 6-fold from 37,537 in the Delta wave to 6,074 in the Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave and a further 7-fold to 837 in the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave. The case fatality ratio (CFR) was 25.9% (N=144,798), 10.9% (N=55,966) and 7.1% (N=11,860) in the Delta, Omicron BA.1/BA.2, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 waves respectively. After adjusting for age, sex, race, comorbidities, health sector and province, compared to the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave, patients had higher risk of mortality in the Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-1.56) and Delta (aOR 3.22; 95% CI 2.98-3.49) wave. Being partially vaccinated (aOR 0.89, CI 0.86-0.93), fully vaccinated (aOR 0.63, CI 0.60-0.66) and boosted (aOR 0.31, CI 0.24-0.41); and prior laboratory-confirmed infection (aOR 0.38, CI 0.35-0.42) were associated with reduced risks of mortality. Conclusion: Overall, admission incidence risk and in-hospital mortality, which had increased progressively in South Africa's first three waves, decreased in the fourth Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave and declined even further in the fifth Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave. Mortality risk was lower in those with natural infection and vaccination, declining further as the number of vaccine doses increased.

Rapidly shifting immunologic landscape and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Omicron era in South Africa (preprint)

South Africa was among the first countries to detect the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. Propelled by increased transmissibility and immune escape properties, Omicron displaced other globally circulating variants within 3 months of its emergence. Due to limited testing, Omicron's attenuated clinical severity, and an increased risk of reinfection, the size of the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants (BA.1/2) wave remains poorly understood in South Africa and in many other countries. Using South African data from urban and rural cohorts closely monitored since the beginning of the pandemic, we analyzed sequential serum samples collected before, during, and after the Omicron BA.1/2 wave to infer infection rates and monitor changes in the immune histories of participants over time. Omicron BA.1/2 infection attack rates reached 65% (95% CI, 60% - 69%) in the rural cohort and 58% (95% CI, 61% - 74%) in the urban cohort, with repeat infections and vaccine breakthroughs accounting for >60% of all infections at both sites. Combined with previously collected data on pre-Omicron variant infections within the same cohorts, we identified 14 distinct categories of SARS-CoV-2 antigen exposure histories in the aftermath of the Omicron BA.1/2 wave, indicating a particularly fragmented immunologic landscape. Few individuals (<6%) remained naive to SARS-CoV-2 and no exposure history category represented over 25% of the population at either cohort site. Further, cohort participants were more than twice as likely to get infected during the Omicron BA.1/2 wave, compared to the Delta wave. Prior infection with the ancestral strain (with D614G mutation), Beta, and Delta variants provided 13% (95% CI, -21% - 37%) , 34% (95% CI, 17% - 48%), and 51% (95% CI, 39% - 60%) protection against Omicron BA.1/2 infection, respectively. Hybrid immunity (prior infection and vaccination) and repeated prior infections (without vaccination) reduced the risks of Omicron BA.1/2 infection by 60% (95% CI, 42% - 72%) and 85% (95% CI, 76% - 92%) respectively. Reinfections and vaccine breakthroughs had 41% (95% CI, 26% - 53%) lower risk of onward transmission than primary infections. Our study sheds light on a rapidly shifting landscape of population immunity, along with the changing characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, and how these factors interact to shape the success of emerging variants. Our findings are especially relevant to populations similar to South Africa with low SARS-CoV-2 vaccine coverage and a dominant contribution of immunity from prior infection. Looking forward, the study provides context for anticipating the long-term circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in populations no longer naive to the virus.

Risk factors for severe COVID-19 among HIV-infected and-uninfected individuals in South Africa, April 2020- March 2022:data from sentinel surveillance. (preprint)

Background Data on risk factors for COVID-19-associated hospitalisation and mortality in high HIV prevalence settings are limited. Methods Using existing syndromic surveillance programs for influenza-like-illness and severe respiratory illness at sentinel sites in South Africa, we identified factors associated with COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality. Results From April 2020 through March 2022, SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 24.0% (660/2746) of outpatient and 32.5% (2282/7025) of inpatient cases. Factors associated with COVID-19-associated hospitalisation included: older age (25-44 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.9], 45-64 [aOR 6.8, 95%CI 4.2-11.0] and [≥]65 years [aOR 26.6, 95%CI 14.4-49.1] vs 15-24 years); black race (aOR 3.3, 95%CI 2.2-5.0); obesity (aOR 2.3, 95%CI 1.4-3.9); asthma (aOR 3.5, 95%CI 1.4-8.9); diabetes mellitus (aOR 5.3, 95%CI 3.1-9.3); HIV with CD4 [≥]200/mm3 (aOR 1.5, 95%CI 1.1-2.2) and CD4<200/mm3 (aOR 10.5, 95%CI 5.1-21.6) or tuberculosis (aOR 12.8, 95%CI 2.8-58.5). Infection with Beta (aOR 0.5, 95%CI 0.3-0.7) vs Delta variant and being fully vaccinated (aOR 0.1, 95%CI 0.1-0.3) were less associated with COVID-19 hospitalisation. In-hospital mortality was increased in older age (45-64 years [aOR 2.2, 95%CI 1.6-3.2] and [≥]65 years [aOR 4.0, 95%CI 2.8-5.8] vs 25-44 years) and male sex (aOR1.3, 95%CI 1.0-1.6) and was lower in Omicron -infected (aOR 0.3, 95%CI 0.2-0.6) vs Delta-infected individuals. Conclusion Active syndromic surveillance encompassing clinical, laboratory and genomic data identified setting-specific risk factors associated with COVID-19 severity that will inform prioritization of COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Elderly, people with tuberculosis or people living with HIV, especially severely immunosuppressed should be prioritised for vaccination.

Clinical severity of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 lineages in South Africa (preprint)

Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 drove a fifth wave of COVID-19 cases in South Africa. We assessed the severity of BA.4/BA.5 infections using the presence/absence of the S-gene target for infections diagnosed using the TaqPath PCR assay between 1 October 2021 and 26 April 2022. We linked national COVID-19 individual-level data including case, laboratory test and hospitalisation data. We assessed severity using multivariable logistic regression comparing the risk of hospitalisation and risk of severe disease, once hospitalised, for Delta, BA.1, BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5 infections. After controlling for factors associated with hospitalisation and severe outcome respectively, BA.4/BA.5-infected individuals had a similar odds of hospitalisation (aOR1.24, 95% CI 0.98–1.55) and severe outcome (aOR 0.71, 95%CI 0.41–1.25) compared to BA.1-infected individuals. Newly emerged Omicron lineages BA.4/BA.5 continue to show reduced clinical severity compared to previous variants, as observed for Omicron BA.1.

Continued Emergence and Evolution of Omicron in South Africa: New BA.4 and BA.5 lineages (preprint)

South Africa's fourth COVID-19 wave was driven predominantly by three lineages (BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3) of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern. We have now identified two new lineages, BA.4 and BA.5. The spike proteins of BA.4 and BA.5 are identical, and comparable to BA.2 except for the addition of 69-70del, L452R, F486V and the wild type amino acid at Q493. The 69-70 deletion in spike allows these lineages to be identified by the proxy marker of S-gene target failure with the TaqPath COVID-19 qPCR assay. BA.4 and BA.5 have rapidly replaced BA.2, reaching more than 50% of sequenced cases in South Africa from the first week of April 2022 onwards. Using a multinomial logistic regression model, we estimate growth advantages for BA.4 and BA.5 of 0.08 (95% CI: 0.07 - 0.09) and 0.12 (95% CI: 0.09 - 0.15) per day respectively over BA.2 in South Africa.

Omicron sub-lineages BA.4/BA.5 escape BA.1 infection elicited neutralizing immunity (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant first emerged as the BA.1 sub-lineage, with extensive escape from neutralizing immunity elicited by previous infection with other variants, vaccines, or combinations of both. Two new sub-lineages, BA.4 and BA.5, are now emerging in South Africa with changes relative to BA.1, including L452R and F486V mutations in the spike receptor binding domain. We isolated live BA.4 and BA.5 viruses and tested them against neutralizing immunity elicited to BA.1 infection in participants who were Omicron/BA.1 infected but unvaccinated (n=24) and participants vaccinated with Pfizer BNT162b2 or Johnson and Johnson Ad26.CoV.2S with breakthrough Omicron/BA.1 infection (n=15). In unvaccinated individuals, FRNT50, the inverse of the dilution for 50% neutralization, declined from 275 for BA.1 to 36 for BA.4 and 37 for BA.5, a 7.6 and 7.5-fold drop, respectively. In vaccinated BA.1 breakthroughs, FRNT50 declined from 507 for BA.1 to 158 for BA.4 (3.2-fold) and 198 for BA.5 (2.6-fold). Absolute BA.4 and BA.5 neutralization levels were about 5-fold higher in this group versus unvaccinated BA.1 infected participants. The observed escape of BA.4 and BA.5 from BA.1 elicited immunity is more moderate than of BA.1 against previous immunity. However, the low absolute neutralization levels for BA.4 and BA.5, particularly in the unvaccinated group, are unlikely to protect well against symptomatic infection. This may indicate that, based on neutralization escape, BA.4 and BA.5 have potential to result in a new infection wave.

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance. (preprint)

Investment in Africa over the past year with regards to SARS-CoV-2 genotyping has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, exceeding 100,000 genomes generated to track the pandemic on the continent. Our results show an increase in the number of African countries able to sequence within their own borders, coupled with a decrease in sequencing turnaround time. Findings from this genomic surveillance underscores the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic but we observe repeated dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 variants within the continent. Sustained investment for genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve, particularly in the low vaccination landscape. These investments are very crucial for preparedness and response for future pathogen outbreaks.

Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from adult index cases living with and without HIV in South Africa, 2020-2021: a case-ascertained, prospective observational household transmission study (preprint)

Background In South Africa 19% of the adult population aged 15-49 years are living with HIV (LWH). Few data on the influence of HIV on SARS-CoV-2 household transmission are available. Methods We performed a case-ascertained, prospective household transmission study of symptomatic index SARS-CoV-2 cases LWH and HIV-uninfected adults and their contacts in South Africa. Households were followed up thrice weekly for 6 weeks to collect nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 testing. We estimated household cumulative infection risk (HCIR), duration of SARS-CoV-2 positivity (at cycle threshold value<30 as proxy for high viral load), and assessed associated factors. Results We recruited 131 index cases and 457 household contacts. HCIR was 59% (220/373); not differing by index HIV status (60% [50/83] in cases LWH vs 58% [173/293] in HIV-uninfected cases, OR 1.0, 95%CI 0.4-2.3). HCIR increased with index case age (35-59 years: aOR 3.4 95%CI 1.5-7.8 and 60 years or older: aOR 3.1, 95%CI 1.0-10.1) compared to 18-34 years, and contacts age, 13-17 years (aOR 7.1, 95%CI 1.5-33.9) and 18-34 years (aOR 4.4, 95%CI 1.0-18.4) compared to <5 years. Mean positivity duration at high viral load was 7 days (range 2-28), with longer positivity in cases LWH (aHR 0.3, 95%CI 0.1-0.7). Conclusions HIV-infection was not associated with higher HCIR, but cases LWH had longer positivity duration at high viral load. Adults aged >35 years were more likely to transmit, and individuals aged 13-34 to acquire SARS-CoV-2 in the household. Health services must maintain HIV testing with initiation of antiretroviral therapy for those HIV-infected.

The impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on future respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa (preprint)

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to mitigating transmission of SARS-CoV-2, these public health measures have also functioned in slowing the spread of other endemic respiratory pathogens. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates low circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 Southern Hemisphere winter seasons. Here we fit age-structured epidemiological models to national surveillance data to predict the 2022 RSV outbreak following two suppressed seasons. We project a 32% increase in the peak number of monthly hospitalizations among infants < 2 years, with older infants (6-23 month olds) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. Our results suggest that hospital system readiness should be prepared for an intense RSV season in early 2022.

Clinical severity of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals during the Omicron wave in South Africa (preprint)

Background: Clinical severity of patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Omicron (fourth) wave was assessed and compared to trends in the D614G (first), Beta (second), and Delta (third) waves in South Africa. Methods: Weekly incidence of 30 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases/100,000 population defined the start and end of each wave. Hospital admission data were collected through an active national COVID-19-specific surveillance programme. Disease severity was compared across waves by post-imputation random effect multivariable logistic regression models. Severe disease was defined as one or more of acute respiratory distress, supplemental oxygen, mechanical ventilation, intensive-care admission or death. Results: 335,219 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 admissions were analysed, constituting 10.4% of 3,216,179 cases recorded during the 4 waves. In the Omicron wave, 8.3% of cases were admitted to hospital (52,038/629,617) compared to 12.9% (71,411/553,530) in the D614G, 12.6% (91,843/726,772) in the Beta and 10.0% (131,083/1,306,260) in the Delta waves (p<0.001). During the Omicron wave, 33.6% of admissions experienced severe disease compared to 52.3%, 63.4% and 63.0% in the D614G, Beta and Delta waves (p<0.001). The in-hospital case fatality ratio during the Omicron wave was 10.7%, compared to 21.5%, 28.8% and 26.4% in the D614G, Beta and Delta waves (p<0.001). Compared to the Omicron wave, patients had more severe clinical presentations in the D614G (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.07; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.01-2.13), Beta (aOR 3.59; CI: 3.49-3.70) and Delta (aOR 3.47: CI: 3.38-3.57) waves. Conclusion: The trend of increasing cases and admissions across South Africa's first three waves shifted in Omicron fourth wave, with a higher and quicker peak but fewer admitted patients, who experienced less clinically severe illness and had a lower case-fatality ratio. Omicron marked a change in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic curve, clinical profile and deaths in South Africa. Extrapolations to other populations should factor in differing vaccination and prior infection levels.

Clinical severity of Omicron sub-lineage BA.2 compared to BA.1 in South Africa (preprint)

Early data indicated that infection with Omicron BA.1 sub-lineage was associated with a lower risk of hospitalisation and severe illness, compared to Delta infection. Recently, the BA.2 sub-lineage has increased in many areas globally. We aimed to assess the severity of BA.2 infections compared to BA.1 in South Africa. We performed data linkages for (i) national COVID-19 case data, (ii) SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test data, and (iii) COVID-19 hospitalisations data, nationally. For cases identified using TaqPath COVID-19 PCR, infections were designated as S-gene target failure (SGTF, proxy for BA.1) or S-gene positive (proxy for BA.2). Disease severity was assessed using multivariable logistic regression models comparing individuals with S-gene positive infection to SGTF-infected individuals diagnosed between 1 December 2021 to 20 January 2022. From week 49 (starting 5 December 2021) through week 4 (ending 29 January 2022), the proportion of S-gene positive infections increased from 3% (931/31,271) to 80% (2,425/3,031). The odds of being admitted to hospital did not differ between individuals with S-gene positive (BA.2 proxy) infection compared to SGTF (BA.1 proxy) infection (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.85-1.09). Among hospitalised individuals, after controlling for factors associated with severe disease, the odds of severe disease did not differ for individuals with S-gene positive infection compared to SGTF infection (aOR 0.91, 95%CI 0.68-1.22). These data suggest that while BA.2 may have a competitive advantage over BA.1 in some settings, the clinical profile of illness remains similar.